This is exactly what I have been thinking and feeling when I look at the polls in the swing states. Those results are very different from most of the posts on Quora that are celebrating a Harris victory, as if it were a done deal. All of this is most worrisome. I live in a very red area of one of the swing states, so I am one of those people whose vote probably won’t matter. Makes one feel powerless, though you are encouraging me not to give in to despondency quite yet. So thank you for that, Habib.
Your vote definitely matters! As long as you're in a swing state. But, yes, no need to despair. Both candidates have more than enough supporters in the places that matter to win the election. It just depends on which side will do a better job of mobilizing its potential electorate.
"I live in a very red area of one of the swing states, so I am one of those people whose vote probably won’t matter."
You are exactly in an area where your vote will matter most. If you're in a swing state, it doesn't matter if your district is red or blue. It's these areas where enthusiasm and turnout are most important.
I live in a red area of a blue state. My vote won't bring the Harris ticket anything but a bigger vote total—but fingers crossed, I *can* have an impact downballot. My biggest wish is to stop saying I live in a red area, and in that every vote (including mine) really does count. We matter all up and down the ticket!!
Did you happen to pay any particular attention to Maine Dist. 2? The polling for it seems very scarce, but the few polls that seem to exist give Harris a moderate advantage, so perhaps it could at least be seen as a tossup instead of Trump leaning as marked on the map you've displayed? The scenario (not the likeliest one, admittedly) where that point brings Democrats to a 270-268 is one where Trump wins PA and MI, but loses one of GA or NC as well as AZ, NV and WI.
That's a very good question. There isn't a ton of polling. From what I've seen Trump was crushing Biden there. The most recent polling has Harris up slightly. But it's a very small data set. And the 2 polls before the most recent ones had Trump ahead. It's possible to call this for Harris but I'd need to see more data in order to have that level of confidence.
What do you think about the hypothesis: considering a very close race, Trump may not be “ahead,” but is in an advantageous position. This is because it’s unlikely any potential event or scandal will hurt Trump very much at this point after all the other media smear/scandals, while Harris is teetering on an explosive geopolitical disaster (Palestine) and any other unforeseen bad events for her could seriously hurt her image.
Still waiting eagerly for the next installments of the changing Latino electorate.
Honestly? I don't think it's a bad take. It's just not provable one way or another. Two things are very clear to me:
1. Trump is a problematic candidate. And his problematic behavior has given him a natural ceiling among people who usually vote.
2. Trump has amazing strengths as a candidate an appeals to millions of voters previously out of reach for Republicans. And the reservoir of potential latent Trump support is very high, as evidenced the huge number of new voters he was able to create in 2020.
I don't know which of these tendencies will win out.
I think you’re right. I’m one of those normally out of reach voters. Absolutely would not vote for Nicki Haley, and do not want a return to the bush neocon years. It’s likely I won’t vote in many presidential elections after 2024, will probably switch back and forth awkwardly to vote in primaries.
Have you by any chance seen any data on how many “Roevember” voters are surging (or not) in swing states in particular? In my opinion, it’s possible Roe voters will decide the election, but I can’t tell how many of those newly registered voters are in swing states.
I take partial issue with only one thing, and perhaps this is the lawyer and former prosecutor quibbling.
People inartfully say that Hur's report described Biden as an elderly man with memory issues. That's not what it did! Hur *specifically* was talking about why there was not enough evidence to get a conviction, and he stated that Biden would *come across to a jury* that way. This is an issue where intent to commit a wrongful act is an essential part of the crime. If I have to prove what we can scienter (corrupt intent, a mindset of knowing it's wrong and doing it anyway, etc.) as part of the elements of a crime, and I don't think I can do it, then I don't think I can prove the crime and I should decline to prosecute the charge. I have to prove every aspect of the crime beyond a reasonable doubt, including that scienter element. That's a high bar! How a defendant presents to a factfinder absolutely is a big piece of that!
This is why I think it is *not* correct to say that Hur was right. I don't think it's fair to say that Biden has memory issues, or even that he presents that way most of the time. I'm just south of 40 and *I* sound more incoherent than Biden a lot of the time when I'm on the spot.
All in all, I generally agree with your sentiments in this piece, and we absolutely need to show up in such overwhelming numbers that there can be no real contesting the results. Thinking that this thing is locked up is a good way to have the kind of complacency that cost Democrats the presidency in 2016.
I think insofar as the criticism of Hur was based on technical objections, I would have a hard time disagreeing. But not all criticism leveled at him was this technical. A lot of what I read amounted to a vehement rejection of the very notion that there was anything wrong with Biden from a cognitive standpoint.
In any case, going back to the main point, I am actually happy to see Democrats worrying again. I was really scared that the unwarranted sense of complacency would depress turnout. The fact that there is a bit more fear now should scare the complacent into voting... I hope.
>>he stated that Biden would *come across to a jury* that way.
Thank you for that. Taken out of context, his assessment of the case has turned into an assessment of Biden, and done a lot of harm.
My father is five weeks older than the President. Like him, very well educated, and like him, still working—though not at anything so demanding! He occasionally misspeaks or, because he refuses to keep notes, forgets what's next on his list of things to do. He's both wise and intelligent and he'd make a great president—but only if the pace wasn't so vicious. I watch President Biden with awe—I'm way younger and I'd never know which end was up if I were doing all that he is in a day. No doubt being President PLUS trying to run for the office was too much, for him to be at his best.
And another nod of agreement to showing up in overwhelming numbers! If we can herd these Democratic cats for just a few weeks longer, perhaps we can avoid the curse of people staying home because they can't be arsed. Fingers crossed.
I agree. Nerve wracking a sit is, we'll probably not know for sure until after the elections unless an event decisively turns the race on way on another.
The only other observation I'd offer is Trump probably can't be beat by going negative. I don't think it's necessarily poor tactics to keep highlighting his unfitness for office, but he's well known, foibles, incoherence, and weirdnesses, it's already baked into his polling averages.
Trump could expand his base, (maybe, if he had the discipline to stick to a given message) but he won't lose votes because liberals point out he said or did something outrageous. Heck, convicting him of felonies didn't weaken his support and even convicts detest sexual predators. So beating up on Trump isn't likely to move the dial (at least it hasn't since 2015, after a decade of attempts).
Harris has the opposing strengths and weaknesses: she probably can't cut into Trump's base much, and thus has a firm ceiling of support she can expand up towards. Eventually she'll hit a wall of conservatives unwilling to cross the aisle to vote for her, but she could expand her voting pool into those independents who vote for both parties.
Harris also risks losing critical support from the Democratic coalition, which is not nearly as solid as the Republican base. Harris needs to break from Biden, as his administration is not popular, nor are its policies (frankly I agree with the conservative take on Biden and I'm almost always hostile to GOP talking points).
I can't say this often or loudly enough: the people do not want 4 more years of Biden or his spendthrift policies and reckless military expenditures. I know, for some reasons I can't figure out, Democrats are all certain yet another litany of the vast accomplishments of this "transformative" administration will result in more voters concluding they were wrong and Biden and his people are the best ever. Not going to happen. Seriously. All it does is piss people off and make them more likely to vote for Trump.
Harris has to find her own path forward, articulating a few key areas she will improve our lives. I'd suggest a strong emphasis on domestic affairs.
I'd also suggest if Bibi acts up she consider how Bill Clinton's takedown of Sister Souljah helped him reassure voters he wasn't a clueless liberal in thrall to his party's in groups in 1992 and got him to the Oval Office. Israel is a client state. If Bibi acts counter to our interests, it should be clear American values and interests win over Israel's every day of the week, every week of the year. If Harris can show the strength that both Biden and Obama lacked in handling the least liked Israeli leader of all time, she'll expand her current base.
Losing Zionist support will not endanger Harris' chances (many in the American Jewish community have nuanced and balanced views on Palestine, not all are ardent Zionists), but a dampening of support among youthful voters (college kids), Arabs in key districts/states (MI especially), and liberal voters like myself could easily mean she comes up short. She should show she has the chops and decisive nature required for executive positions, not hedge or try and please everyone.
So Trump has a solid floor, but likely can't easily expand his base. Harris has a more fractured base that needs reassurance, but could (hopefully) stretch her base into independents sufficiently to win.
And yeah, don't trust close polls. Habib is right.
I agree with most of this, though I'm not nearly as confident as you are that I know what it will take for Harris to win. The US electorate is very complex, and putting together a winning coalition is very tough, especially on the left. I'm not sure what it will take but I hope she's able to get there, when all is said and done. I just won't be betting any money on it.
This is exactly what I have been thinking and feeling when I look at the polls in the swing states. Those results are very different from most of the posts on Quora that are celebrating a Harris victory, as if it were a done deal. All of this is most worrisome. I live in a very red area of one of the swing states, so I am one of those people whose vote probably won’t matter. Makes one feel powerless, though you are encouraging me not to give in to despondency quite yet. So thank you for that, Habib.
Your vote definitely matters! As long as you're in a swing state. But, yes, no need to despair. Both candidates have more than enough supporters in the places that matter to win the election. It just depends on which side will do a better job of mobilizing its potential electorate.
"I live in a very red area of one of the swing states, so I am one of those people whose vote probably won’t matter."
You are exactly in an area where your vote will matter most. If you're in a swing state, it doesn't matter if your district is red or blue. It's these areas where enthusiasm and turnout are most important.
I live in a red area of a blue state. My vote won't bring the Harris ticket anything but a bigger vote total—but fingers crossed, I *can* have an impact downballot. My biggest wish is to stop saying I live in a red area, and in that every vote (including mine) really does count. We matter all up and down the ticket!!
Did you happen to pay any particular attention to Maine Dist. 2? The polling for it seems very scarce, but the few polls that seem to exist give Harris a moderate advantage, so perhaps it could at least be seen as a tossup instead of Trump leaning as marked on the map you've displayed? The scenario (not the likeliest one, admittedly) where that point brings Democrats to a 270-268 is one where Trump wins PA and MI, but loses one of GA or NC as well as AZ, NV and WI.
That's a very good question. There isn't a ton of polling. From what I've seen Trump was crushing Biden there. The most recent polling has Harris up slightly. But it's a very small data set. And the 2 polls before the most recent ones had Trump ahead. It's possible to call this for Harris but I'd need to see more data in order to have that level of confidence.
What do you think about the hypothesis: considering a very close race, Trump may not be “ahead,” but is in an advantageous position. This is because it’s unlikely any potential event or scandal will hurt Trump very much at this point after all the other media smear/scandals, while Harris is teetering on an explosive geopolitical disaster (Palestine) and any other unforeseen bad events for her could seriously hurt her image.
Still waiting eagerly for the next installments of the changing Latino electorate.
Honestly? I don't think it's a bad take. It's just not provable one way or another. Two things are very clear to me:
1. Trump is a problematic candidate. And his problematic behavior has given him a natural ceiling among people who usually vote.
2. Trump has amazing strengths as a candidate an appeals to millions of voters previously out of reach for Republicans. And the reservoir of potential latent Trump support is very high, as evidenced the huge number of new voters he was able to create in 2020.
I don't know which of these tendencies will win out.
I think you’re right. I’m one of those normally out of reach voters. Absolutely would not vote for Nicki Haley, and do not want a return to the bush neocon years. It’s likely I won’t vote in many presidential elections after 2024, will probably switch back and forth awkwardly to vote in primaries.
Have you by any chance seen any data on how many “Roevember” voters are surging (or not) in swing states in particular? In my opinion, it’s possible Roe voters will decide the election, but I can’t tell how many of those newly registered voters are in swing states.
I take partial issue with only one thing, and perhaps this is the lawyer and former prosecutor quibbling.
People inartfully say that Hur's report described Biden as an elderly man with memory issues. That's not what it did! Hur *specifically* was talking about why there was not enough evidence to get a conviction, and he stated that Biden would *come across to a jury* that way. This is an issue where intent to commit a wrongful act is an essential part of the crime. If I have to prove what we can scienter (corrupt intent, a mindset of knowing it's wrong and doing it anyway, etc.) as part of the elements of a crime, and I don't think I can do it, then I don't think I can prove the crime and I should decline to prosecute the charge. I have to prove every aspect of the crime beyond a reasonable doubt, including that scienter element. That's a high bar! How a defendant presents to a factfinder absolutely is a big piece of that!
This is why I think it is *not* correct to say that Hur was right. I don't think it's fair to say that Biden has memory issues, or even that he presents that way most of the time. I'm just south of 40 and *I* sound more incoherent than Biden a lot of the time when I'm on the spot.
All in all, I generally agree with your sentiments in this piece, and we absolutely need to show up in such overwhelming numbers that there can be no real contesting the results. Thinking that this thing is locked up is a good way to have the kind of complacency that cost Democrats the presidency in 2016.
I think insofar as the criticism of Hur was based on technical objections, I would have a hard time disagreeing. But not all criticism leveled at him was this technical. A lot of what I read amounted to a vehement rejection of the very notion that there was anything wrong with Biden from a cognitive standpoint.
In any case, going back to the main point, I am actually happy to see Democrats worrying again. I was really scared that the unwarranted sense of complacency would depress turnout. The fact that there is a bit more fear now should scare the complacent into voting... I hope.
>>he stated that Biden would *come across to a jury* that way.
Thank you for that. Taken out of context, his assessment of the case has turned into an assessment of Biden, and done a lot of harm.
My father is five weeks older than the President. Like him, very well educated, and like him, still working—though not at anything so demanding! He occasionally misspeaks or, because he refuses to keep notes, forgets what's next on his list of things to do. He's both wise and intelligent and he'd make a great president—but only if the pace wasn't so vicious. I watch President Biden with awe—I'm way younger and I'd never know which end was up if I were doing all that he is in a day. No doubt being President PLUS trying to run for the office was too much, for him to be at his best.
And another nod of agreement to showing up in overwhelming numbers! If we can herd these Democratic cats for just a few weeks longer, perhaps we can avoid the curse of people staying home because they can't be arsed. Fingers crossed.
I agree. Nerve wracking a sit is, we'll probably not know for sure until after the elections unless an event decisively turns the race on way on another.
The only other observation I'd offer is Trump probably can't be beat by going negative. I don't think it's necessarily poor tactics to keep highlighting his unfitness for office, but he's well known, foibles, incoherence, and weirdnesses, it's already baked into his polling averages.
Trump could expand his base, (maybe, if he had the discipline to stick to a given message) but he won't lose votes because liberals point out he said or did something outrageous. Heck, convicting him of felonies didn't weaken his support and even convicts detest sexual predators. So beating up on Trump isn't likely to move the dial (at least it hasn't since 2015, after a decade of attempts).
Harris has the opposing strengths and weaknesses: she probably can't cut into Trump's base much, and thus has a firm ceiling of support she can expand up towards. Eventually she'll hit a wall of conservatives unwilling to cross the aisle to vote for her, but she could expand her voting pool into those independents who vote for both parties.
Harris also risks losing critical support from the Democratic coalition, which is not nearly as solid as the Republican base. Harris needs to break from Biden, as his administration is not popular, nor are its policies (frankly I agree with the conservative take on Biden and I'm almost always hostile to GOP talking points).
I can't say this often or loudly enough: the people do not want 4 more years of Biden or his spendthrift policies and reckless military expenditures. I know, for some reasons I can't figure out, Democrats are all certain yet another litany of the vast accomplishments of this "transformative" administration will result in more voters concluding they were wrong and Biden and his people are the best ever. Not going to happen. Seriously. All it does is piss people off and make them more likely to vote for Trump.
Harris has to find her own path forward, articulating a few key areas she will improve our lives. I'd suggest a strong emphasis on domestic affairs.
I'd also suggest if Bibi acts up she consider how Bill Clinton's takedown of Sister Souljah helped him reassure voters he wasn't a clueless liberal in thrall to his party's in groups in 1992 and got him to the Oval Office. Israel is a client state. If Bibi acts counter to our interests, it should be clear American values and interests win over Israel's every day of the week, every week of the year. If Harris can show the strength that both Biden and Obama lacked in handling the least liked Israeli leader of all time, she'll expand her current base.
Losing Zionist support will not endanger Harris' chances (many in the American Jewish community have nuanced and balanced views on Palestine, not all are ardent Zionists), but a dampening of support among youthful voters (college kids), Arabs in key districts/states (MI especially), and liberal voters like myself could easily mean she comes up short. She should show she has the chops and decisive nature required for executive positions, not hedge or try and please everyone.
So Trump has a solid floor, but likely can't easily expand his base. Harris has a more fractured base that needs reassurance, but could (hopefully) stretch her base into independents sufficiently to win.
And yeah, don't trust close polls. Habib is right.
I agree with most of this, though I'm not nearly as confident as you are that I know what it will take for Harris to win. The US electorate is very complex, and putting together a winning coalition is very tough, especially on the left. I'm not sure what it will take but I hope she's able to get there, when all is said and done. I just won't be betting any money on it.